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By: Stephen R. Thompson, MD, MEd, FRCSC, Cooperating Associate Professor of Sports Medicine, University of Maine, Medical Director, EMMC Sports Health, Deputy Editor, The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Eastern Maine Medical Center Bangor, Maine; Cofounder and Codirector, Miller Review Course Part II, Denver , Colorado

The concept of probability is not foreign to health workers and is frequently encountered in everyday communication buy amoxil online antibiotic with penicillin. For example amoxil 500mg on-line antibiotic resistance review, we may hear a physician say that a patient has a 50–50 chance of surviving a certain operation cheap amoxil line antibiotic prophylaxis joint replacement. Another physician may say that she is 95 percent certain that a patient has a particular disease buy generic levitra professional on-line. A public health nurse may say that nine times out of ten a certain client will break an appointment zenegra 100mg mastercard. As these examples suggest purchase kamagra chewable 100mg free shipping, most people express probabilities in terms of percentages. In dealing with probabilities mathematically, it is more convenient to express probabilities as fractions. The more likely the event, the closer the number is to one; and the more unlikely the event, the closer the number is to zero. An event that cannot occur has a probability of zero, and an event that is certain to occur has a probability of one. Health sciences researchers continually ask themselves if the results of their efforts could have occurred by chance alone or if some other force was operating to produce the observed effects. For example, suppose six out of ten patients suffering from some disease are cured after receiving a certain treatment. Is such a cure rate likely to have occurred if the patients had not received the treatment, or is it evidence of a true curative effect on the part of the treatment? We shall see that questions such as these can be answered through the application of the concepts and laws of probability. The concept of objective probability may be categorized further under the headings of (1) classical, or a priori, probability, and (2) the relative frequency, or a posteriori, concept of probability. Classical Probability The classical treatment of probability dates back to the 17th century and the work of two mathematicians, Pascal and Fermat. Much of this theory developed out of attempts to solve problems related to games of chance, such as those involving the rolling of dice. Examples from games of chance illustrate very well the principles involved in classical probability. For example, if a fair six-sided die is rolled, the probability that a 1 will be observed is equal to 1=6 and is the same for the other five faces. If a card is picked at random from a well-shuffled deck of ordinary playing cards, the probability of picking a heart is 13=52. Probabilities such as these are calculated by the processes of abstract reasoning. In the rolling of the die, we say that each of the six sides is equally likely to be observed if there is no reason to favor any one of the six sides. Similarly, if there is no reason to favor the drawing of a particular card from a deck of cards, we say that each of the 52 cards is equally likely to be drawn.